Commentary The Odyssey has been massively successful both critically (it is at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and commercially (it has grossed $1.6 billion worldwide, #14 of all time). That being said, and contrary to some reporting, it did not play through the roof at its official Academy screening in LA — it was warmly but not effusively received, and its principal talent opted not to appear for a post-screening Q&A, which didn’t help matters. But it certainly has been seen and liked by more Academy members around the world than any other film, many of whom do love it, so it is indeed the clear frontrunner.

Other top-tier contenders include Project Hail Mary, which was also a giant critical and commercial success, and probably benefits from being a little more light-hearted than most of its competition; two Cannes darlings, La Bola Negra, a sweeping Spanish-language epic which is Netflix’s principal cause this awards season, and Fjord; and The Invite, a Sundance darling that went on to very strong reviews and box office for a film of its size.

The title that is likeliest to pop out of the fall fests may well be Wild Horse Nine; it’s very quirky, but so too were Martin McDonagh’s earlier films Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, which were widely embraced by the Academy.

Can another true blockbuster join The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary in the 10? Keep an eye on Toy Story 5, Michael and Obsession — I’m sure the Academy and its broadcasting partner, ABC, will!

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal, July 17, THR review) — Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM, March 20, THR review) — Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Aditya Sood & Andy Weir
3. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight, Nov. 6) — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh & Anita Overland VENI
4. La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) — Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo CANN, TIFF
5. Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) — Dyveke Bkørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar & Tudor Reu CANN, KARL, TIFF
6. The Invite (A24, June 26, THR review) — Ben Browning, Megan Ellison & David Permut SUND
7. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street, Dec. 4) — Georgina Lowe TIFF, NYFF
8. Ink (Netflix, Dec. 11) — Danny Boyle, Michael Ellenberg, Tessa Ross & Tracey Seaward VENI, TIFF
9. Paper Tiger (Neon, Nov. 13, THR review) — Andrea Bucko, Gary Farkas, Anthony Katagas, Raffaella Leone, Marco Perego, Carlo Salem & Rodrigo Teixeira CANN, KARL, NYFF
10. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar, June 19, THR review) — Jessica Choi & Lindsey Collins

Major Threats
11. Michael (Lionsgate, 4/24, THR review) — John Branca, Graham King & John McClain
12. Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) — Edward Berger, Lorenzo Gangarossa, Mario Gianani, Lorenzo Mieli, Ewa Puszczyńska, Dimitri Rassam & Jeanne Tremsal CANN, KARL, NYFF
13. All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) — Renan Artukmaç, Bettina Brokemper, Julien Deris, David Gauquié, Hiroko Matsuda, Jean-Luc Ormières, Kôsuke Oshida, Joseph Rouschop & Yûji Sadai CANN, TIFF, NYFF
14. Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) — Charles Gillibert & Andrei Zvyagintsev CANN, TIFF, NYFF
15. Obsession (Focus, May 15, THR review) — James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri & Roman Viaris-de-Lesegno TIFF
16. Tuner (Black Bear, 5/22, THR review) — Michael Heimler, Teddy Schwarzman, JoAnne Sellar & Lila Yacoub TIFF, SUND

Possibilities
17. Sense and Sensibility (Focus, Oct. 16) — Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, India Flint & Jo Wallet
18. Josephine (Sumerian, Nov. 20, THR review) — Jesse Hope, Josh Peters & Max Walker-Silverman SUND, BERL
19. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix, Oct. 30) — Peter Berg, Alex Gayner & Brian Grazer
20. Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) — Michiel Dhont CANN, KARL
21. Being Heumann (Apple, Nov. 6) — John W. Beach, Kevin Cleary, Sian Heder, David Permut & Kevin Walsh TIFF
22. Tony (A24, Aug. 7, THR review) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller, Tim White & Trevor White

Long Shots
23. Backrooms (A24, May 29, THR review) — Kori Adelson, Peter Chernin, Michael Clear, Dan Cohen, Chris Ferguson, Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, Roberto Patino, Osgood Perkins, Jenno Topping & James Wan
24. The Liberation (Bleecker Street, TBD) — Julia Lebedev, Roy Lee, Oren Moverman, Jaime Ray Newman, Steven Schneider & Eddie Vaisman TIFF
25. Bunker (Sony Classics, TBD) — Fernando Bovaira, Alice Dawson, Federica Sainte-Rose & Simón de Santiago VENI, TIFF
26. Tenzing (Apple, Oct. 9) — Desray Armston, Iain Canning, Luke Davies, Jennifer Peedom, Emile Sherman & Liz Watts
27. Disclosure Day (Universal, June 12, THR review) — Kristie Macosko Krieger & Steven Spielberg

Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon, TBD) — Jeffrey Clifford, Jennifer Fox, Luca Guadagnino, David Heyman & Simon Rich
Behemoth! (Searchlight, Dec. 4) — John Gilroy, Tony Gilroy & Sanne Wohlenberg NYFF
Club Kid (A24, Nov. 6, THR review) — Alex Coco, Galen Core & Ryan Heller CANN
The Debut (A24, Dec. 11) — Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McNary & Emma Stone TIFF, NYFF
DIGGER (Warner Bros., Oct. 2) — Tom Cruise, Alejandro González Iñarritu & Mary Parent
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros., Dec. 18) — Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent & Denis Villeneuve
Elsinore (Focus, Nov. 20) — Carolyn Marks Blackwood, Mickey Liddell, Stefano Massenzi, Andrea Occhipinti, Andrew Scott, Pete Shilaimon & Gabrielle Tana TIFF, LOND
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix, Nov. 25) — Ceán Chaffin, David Heyman, Brad Pitt & Quentin Tarantino
Heart of the Beast (Paramount, Sept. 25) — David Ayer, Marty Bowen, Olivia Hamilton & Brad Pitt
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 13) — Christian Baha, Toby Emmerich & Peter Farrelly TIFF
Madden (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 26) — Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Matthew Budman, Jonathan Shukat & Steve Tisch
Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount, Dec. 25) — Gillian Bohrer, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jonathan Levine & Nick Santora
Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23) — Lee Joon-dong, David Levine & Chadwick Prichard
Primetime (A24, Sept. 25) — Ari Aster, Fred Berger, Tyler Campellone, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Lars Knudsen, Brighton McCloskey & Robert Pattinson VENI
The Social Reckoning (Sony, Oct. 9) — Stuart M. Besser, Todd Black, Peter Rice & Aaron Sorkin
Werwulf (Focus, Dec. 25) — Tim Bevan, Garrett Bird, Robert Eggers, Eric Fellner & Sjón Sigurdsson

Commentary For The Odyssey, Christopher Nolan is looking like a strong bet to win his second best director Oscar in four years. His challengers include two colorful duos, Phil Lord and Chris Miller, for Project Hail Mary, and Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo, for La Bola Negra. This is a category in which helmers of non-English-language films are getting nominated with increasing frequency, so keep an eye on not only “Los Javis,” but also Fjord’s Cristian Mungiu, Fatherland’s Pawel Pawlikowski (previously a best director nominee for Cold War), All of a Sudden’s Ryusuke Hamaguchi (previously a best director nominee for Drive My Car) and Minotaur’s Andrey Zvyagintsev (two of whose films have been nominated for best international feature, and who recently teamed up with the same publicist who helped to guide Bong Jo Ho to the Oscars for Parasite). Also keep in mind that the directors branch loves to nominate young filmmakers for breakthroughs, which could bode well for Obsession’s Curry Barker and/or Backrooms’ Kane Parsons, and revered old-timers, such as Mike Leigh, who has indicated that Tender Loving Care might be his last outing. The one female director who seems to be in serious contention: Olivia Wilde, for The Invite.

Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey (Universal)
2. Phil Lord and Chris Miller for Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM)
3. Martin McDonagh for Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)
4. Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo for La Bola Negra (Netflix)
5. Olivia Wilde for The Invite (A24) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Mike Leigh for Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street) — podcast
7. Cristian Mungiu for Fjord (Neon)
8. Pawel Pawlikowski for Fatherland (Neon)
9. Ryusuke Hamaguchi for All of a Sudden (Neon)
10. Andrey Zvyagintsev for Minotaur (MUBI)
11. James Gray for Paper Tiger (Neon) — podcast

Possibilities
12. Danny Boyle for Ink (Netflix) — podcast
13. Curry Barker for Obsession (Focus)
14. Kane Parsons for Backrooms (A24)
15. Andrew Stanton for Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar)
16. Lukas Dhont for Coward (MUBI)
17. Peter Berg for The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix)

Long Shots
18. Daniel Roher for Tuner (Black Bear)
19. Beth de Araújo for Josephine (Sumerian)
20. Sian Heder for Being Heumann (Apple)
21. Guy Nattiv for The Liberation (Bleecker Street)
22. Florian Zeller for Bunker (Sony Classics)
23. Jennifer Peedom for Tenzing (Apple)
24. Steven Spielberg for Disclosure Day (Universal) — podcast

Still to See or Under Embargo
David Ayer for Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount)
Lee Chang-dong for Possible Love (Netflix)
Robert Eggers for Werwulf (Focus)
Jesse Eisenberg for The Debut (A24) — podcast
Peter Farrelly for I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
David Fincher for The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
Jordan Firstman for Club Kid (A24)
Tony Gilroy for Behemoth! (Searchlight)
Luca Guadagnino for Artificial (Neon)
Alejandro González Iñarritu for DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — podcast 1 and 2
Jonathan Levine for Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount)
David O. Russell for Madden (Amazon/MGM)
Aaron Sorkin for The Social Reckoning (Sony) — podcast
Simon Stone for Elsinore (Focus)
Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — podcast

Commentary An interesting oddity about this year’s field: virtually nobody who is in serious contention has previously won an acting Oscar. The contenders include several A-list stars — Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) and Sebastian Stan (Fjord) — but the one to beat may well be an overdue septuagenarian: 73-year-old John Malkovich, an actors’ actor whose two prior noms came more than 40 years ago, and who gives one of his best performances to date in Wild Horse Nine, a film from Martin McDonagh, whose last two releases yielded a combined seven acting Oscar noms, two of which resulted in wins. Sleeper possibilities for noms include veteran John Turturro, who somehow has never even been nominated for an Oscar, and whose current film, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, has been invited to more major fests than any other performer; and newcomer Jaafar Jackson, nephew of Michael, who is the one aspect of Michael that virtually everyone thinks highly of.

Frontrunners
1. John Malkovich for Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)
2. Matt Damon for The Odyssey (Universal)
3. Ryan Gosling for Project Hail Mary (Prime Video)
4. Sebastian Stan for Fjord (Neon) — podcast
5. Jack O’Connell for Ink (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. John Turturro for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Classics) — podcast
7. Jaafar Jackson for Michael (Lionsgate)
8. Miles Teller for Paper Tiger (Neon) — podcast
9. Leo Woodall for Tuner (Black Bear)
10. Robert Aramayo for I Swear (Sony Classics)
11. Willem Dafoe for Late Fame (Magnolia) — podcast

Possibilities
12. Javier Bardem for The Beloved (Kino Lorber) — podcast
13. Javier Bardem for Bunker (Sony Classics) — podcast
14. Dominic Sessa for Tony (A24)
15. Matthew McConaughey for The Rivals of Amziah King (Black Bear) — podcast
16. Hanns Zischler for Fatherland (MUBI)
17. Dmitriy Mazurov for Minotaur (MUBI)

Long Shots
18. Chiwetel Ejiofor for Backrooms (A24)
19. Seth Rogen for The Invite (A24) — podcast 1 and 2
20. Jack Huston for The Basics of Philosophy (still seeking U.S. distribution)
21. Josh O’Connor for Disclosure Day (Universal)
22. Valentin Campagne for Coward (MUBI)
23. Emmanuel Macchia for Coward (MUBI)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Yura Borisov for Artificial (Neon)
Nicolas Cage for Madden (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Timothée Chalamet for Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — podcast
David Corenswet for Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount)
Tom Cruise for DIGGER (Warner Bros.)
Johnny Depp for Ebenezer (Paramount)
Alden Ehrenreich for A Talent for Murder (Bleecker Street)
Jordan Firstman for Club Kid (A24)
Ethan Hawke for The Weight (Vertical) — podcast
Anthony Ippolito for I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
Ian McKellen for The Christophers (Neon) — podcast
Pedro Pascal for Behemoth! (Searchlight)
Robert Pattinson for Primetime (A24) — podcast
Brad Pitt for The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
Brad Pitt for Heart of the Beast (Paramount)
Andrew Scott for Elsinore (Focus)
Jeremy Strong for The Social Reckoning (Sony) — podcast
Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Werwulf (Focus)

Commentary There is a small but mighty group of actresses in the mix. Out of Europe, we have Virginie Efira, who shared in Cannes’ best actress prize for All of a Sudden, in which she plays a nursing home director; Léa Seydoux, who has never been better than she is as a woman whose life is upended by accusations made against the man she married and with whom she had a child; Kate O’Flynn, hot on the heels of the first season of Widow’s Bay, who brings a vivaciousness to a Mike Leigh movie (Tender Loving Care) not seen since Happy-Go-Lucky; Renate Reinsve, a nominee in this category earlier this year for Sentimental Value who could make it two-in-a-row for her portrayal of an immigrant mother in Fjord; and Sandra Hüller, who could become the first beneficiary of the Academy’s rule change allowing a single performer to be nominated for multiple performances in the same category, thanks to her totally different but equally memorable turns in Rose, for which she won Berlin’s best actress prize, and Fatherland.

But I think the two strongest contenders, thus far, both happen to be Americans. This year’s Cinderella story is Inde Navarrette, the 25-year-old who was picked out of virtually nowhere to star in Obsession, and whose haunting performance helped to make it one of the most profitable movies ever and catapulted her onto the A-list. Sure, it’s a gory horror film, but that didn’t prevent the Academy from issuing best actress noms to other ingenues from Sissy Spacek for Carrie to Natalie Portman for Black Swan; plus, a 25-year-old won best actress just last year for another pretty wacky movie (Anora’s Mikey Madison). But I had to remove Navarrette from the pole position, at least for now, after seeing The Liberation, in which Carrie Coon, who is 20 years older and has been acting for decades, gives the performance of her career as a Holocaust survivor who is recruited into a cult — the true story of her director Guy Nattiv’s own grandmother.

Potentially joining the race in the near future: past winners Julianne Moore, for The Debut, and the aforementioned Mikey Madison, for The Social Reckoning.

Frontrunners
1. Carrie Coon for The Liberation (Bleecker Street)
2. Inde Navarrette for Obsession (Focus)
3. Virginie Efira for All of a Sudden (Neon)
4. Léa Seydoux for Gentle Monster (Netflix) — podcast
5. Kate O’Flynn for Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street)

Major Threats
6. Renate Reinsve for Fjord (Neon)
7. Sandra Hüller for Fatherland (MUBI) — podcast
8. Sandra Hüller for Rose (MUBI) — podcast
9. Olivia Wilde for The Invite (A24) — podcast
10. Penélope Cruz for Bunker (Sony Classics) — podcast

Possibilities
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones for Sense and Sensibility (Focus)
12. Ruth Madeley for Being Heumann (Apple)
13. Zendaya for The Drama (A24) — podcast
14. Emily Blunt for Disclosure Day (Universal) — podcast

Long Shots
15. Meryl Streep for The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century) — podcast
16. Rinko Kikuchi for Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (Sony Classics)
17. Sophie Okonedo for Clarissa (Neon)
18. Margot Robbie for Wuthering Heights (Warner Bros.) — podcast

Still to See or Under Embargo
Hiam Abbass for Atonement (Kino Lorber)
Moon Choi for Bedford Park (Sony Classics)
Michaela Coel for The Christophers (Neon)
Jeon Do-yeon for Possible Love (Netflix)
Rosalind Eleazar for Misty Green (A24)
Cynthia Erivo for Prima Facie (still seeking U.S. distribution) — podcast
Dakota Johnson for Verity (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Katherine Mallen Kupferer for Mouse (IFC)
Barbara Lennie for Bitter Christmas (Sony Classics)
Mikey Madison for The Social Reckoning (Columbia) — podcast
Kate Mara for Bucking Fastard (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rooney Mara for Bucking Fastard (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Julianne Moore for The Debut (A24) — podcast
Keke Palmer for I Love Boosters (Neon)
Kara Young for Is God Is (Amazon/MGM)

Commentary Adam Driver, who has been Oscar-nominated twice in the past decade, may have his best shot yet at a win for his portrayal of the most interesting character in Paper Tiger. But he’ll have to fend off, among others, Wild Horse Nine’s Sam Rockwell, who won this category’s Oscar the last time he appeared in a Martin McDonagh film; Michael’s Colman Domingo, who received Oscar noms in two of the last three years; and a phalanx of thespians from The Odyssey (John Leguizamo, Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland) and La Bola Negra (Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau and Carlos Gonzalez), many of whom are preparing to hit the circuit hard.

Frontrunners
1. Adam Driver for Paper Tiger (Neon) — podcast
2. Sam Rockwell for Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 2
3. John Leguizamo for The Odyssey (Universal)
4. Robert Pattinson for The Odyssey (Universal) — podcast
5. Guitarricadelafuente for La Bola Negra (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Guy Pearce for Ink (Netflix) — podcast
7. Colman Domingo for Michael (Lionsgate) — podcast
8. Steve Buscemi for Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)
9. James Ortiz for Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM)
10. Tom Holland for The Odyssey (Universal)

Possibilities
11. Miguel Bernardeau for La Bola Negra (Netflix)
12. Carlos Gonzalez for La Bola Negra (Netflix)
13. Dustin Hoffman for Tuner (Black Bear)
14. Paul Jesson for Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street)

Long Shots
15. Edward Norton for The Invite (A24) — podcast
16. Antonio Banderas for Tony (A24)
17. Channing Tatum for Josephine (Sumerian) — podcast
18. Ray Nicholson for The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Will Arnett for Behemoth! (Searchlight)
Christian Bale for Madden (Amazon/MGM)
Ike Barinholtz for Artifical (Neon)
Scott Caan for The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
Diego Calva for Club Kid (A24)
Tom Courtenay for Queen at Sea (Greenwich)
Willem Dafoe for Werwulf (Foucs) — podcast
Matt Dillon for I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
Andrew Garfield for Artificial (Neon) — podcast
Paul Giamatti for The Debut (A24) — podcast
John Goodman for DIGGER (Warner Bros.)
Stephan James for I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Jesse Plemons for DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Mark Rylance for Artifical (Neon)
Jeremy Allen White for The Social Reckoning (Sony) — podcast

Commentary The aforementioned Sandra Hüller not only has two performances vying for — and now, thanks to a rule change, both able to receive — lead acting noms, but she also has two other performances in the mix for — and both able to receive — supporting acting noms: her turn opposite Tom Cruise in DIGGER, still to be seen; and her turn in Project Hail Mary, as the duplicitous mission chief whose humanity shines through when she sings Harry Styles’ “Sign of the Times” at karaoke. I think it’s likely that her incredible year will be recognized somewhere, and that Project Hail Mary will be recognized somewhere, and this seems like the most likely place.

Others in the mix include The Odyssey’s Anne Hathaway, who won this category’s Oscar 14 years ago for Les Misérables (unless she decides to pursue a lead actress nom instead — she’s still thinking it over), and her costar Samantha Morton, who was nominated twice before decades ago, and whose brief but powerful appearance in the film was met with a standing ovation on set; Sense and Sensibility’s 26-year-old Esme Creed-Miles, who shines in the same role for which Kate Winslet received her first Oscar nomination (and who happens to be Morton’s daughter); Scarlett Johansson, who was well received in Cannes for her performance as the matriarch in Paper Tiger; and Penélope Cruz, who won this category’s Oscar 18 years ago, and who steals every scene in which she appears in both La Bola Negra and The Invite.

Frontrunners
1. Sandra Hüller for Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
2. Anne Hathaway for The Odyssey (Universal)
3. Scarlett Johansson for Paper Tiger (Neon)
4. Samantha Morton in The Odyssey (Universal)
5. Penélope Cruz for La Bola Negra (Netflix) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Penélope Cruz for The Invite (A24) — podcast
7. Esme Creed-Miles for Sense and Sensibility (Focus)
8. Mariana di Girolamo for Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)
9. Alice Bailey Johnson for Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street)
10. Marion Bailey for Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street)

Possibilities
11. Tao Okamoto for All of a Sudden (Neon)
12. Gemma Chan for Josephine (Sumerian)
13. Claire Foy for Ink (Netflix) — podcast
14. Lola Dueñas for La Bola Negra (Netflix)
15. Lily James for The Liberation (Bleecker Street) — podcast

Long Shots
16. Catherine Deneuve for Gentle Monster (Netflix)
17. Greta Lee for Late Fame (Magnolia)
18. Alana Haim for The Drama (A24)
19. Renate Reinsve for Backrooms (A24)
20. Emilia Jones for Tony (A24) — podcast

Still to See or Under Embargo
Monica Barbaro for Artifical (Neon)
Colleen Camp for Club Kid (A24)
Olivia Colman for Elsinore (Focus) — podcast
Elizabeth Debicki for The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
Cara Delevingne for Club Kid (A24)
Lily-Rose Depp for Werwulf (Focus)
Kathryn Hahn for Madden (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Rebecca Hall for The Man I Love (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Sandra Hüller for DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Wunmi Mosaku for The Social Reckoning (Sony)
Sophie Okonedo for Mouse (IFC)
AnnaSophia Robb for I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
Eva Victor for Behemoth! (Searchlight)
Merritt Wever for Primetime (A24)

Commentary This is actually one of the more competitive and interesting categories of the year. Even though The Odyssey is the best picture frontrunner, its script, like the script for Nolan’s last best picture frontrunner, Oppenheimer, is polarizing. (Oppenheimer was nominated for this category’s Oscar but lost.) So if not Oppenheimer, then what? The likeliest beneficiaries would be Project Hail Mary or The Invite. But something could still come along down the line that upsets the apple cart — perhaps The Social Reckoning (Aaron Sorkin, who wrote it, won this category’s Oscar for The Social Network) or I Play Rocky (you may recall that an earlier Peter Farrelly film, Green Book, won an Oscar for its screenplay).

Frontrunners
1. Project Hail Mary (Amazon) — Drew Goddard
2. The Invite (A24) — Rashida Jones & Will McCormack
3. The Odyssey (Universal) — Christopher Nolan
4. La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo & Alberto Conejero
5. Ink (Netflix) — James Graham

Major Threats
6. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar) — Kenna Harris & Andrew Stanton
7. Minotaur (MUBI) — Simon Lyashenko & Andrey Zvyagintsev
8. All of a Sudden (Neon) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Léa Le Dimna
9. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Diana Reid

Possibilities
10. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Buzz Bissinger
11. Tony (A24) — Todd Bartels, Lou Howe, Matt Johnson & Matthew Miller
12. Being Heumann (Apple) — Sian Heder & Rebekah Taussig
13. Backrooms (A24) — Kane Parsons & Will Soodik

Long Shots
14. Late Fame (Magnolia) — Samy Burch
15. Pressure (Focus) — David Haig & Anthony Maras
16. Wuthering Heights (Warner Bros.) — Emerald Fennell — podcast
17. Clarissa (Neon) — Chuko Esiri

Still to See or Under Embargo
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve — podcast [Villeneuve]
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Quentin Tarantino — podcast
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Peter Gamble Robinson
Primetime (A24) — Ajon Singh
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Aaron Sorkin — podcast
Wildwood (Laika) — Chris Butler

Commentary Mike Leigh, 83, has never won an Oscar, despite having received two noms for directing and five noms for screenwriting (even though he — or at least an underling — only types up a script after his films, which are made through a form of guided improvisation, are completed). I think that the writers branch of the Academy may wish to rectify that for Tender Loving Care, which seems likely to be his final film, and not just out of sentimentality; it’s really one of his best. But one would be silly to discount the prospects of Wild Horse Nine’s Martin McDonagh, whom writers revere for his inventive work on stage and screen (he’s received three screenwriting Oscar noms); Paper Tiger’s James Gray; Fjord’s Cristian Mungiu; or even Obsession’s Curry Barker — though he’s just 26, he crafted one of the higher quality horror movies of recent years.

Frontrunners
1. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh — podcast
2. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Martin McDonagh
3. Fjord (Neon) — Cristian Mungiu
4. Paper Tiger (Neon) — James Gray — podcast
5. Obession (Focus) — Curry Barker

Major Threats
6. Fatherland (MUBI) — Henk Handloegten & Paweł Pawlikowski
7. Tuner (Black Bear) — Robert Ramsey & Daniel Roher
8. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Classics) — Noah Segan
9. The Liberation (Bleecker Street) — Noa Berman-Herzberg & Guy Nattiv

Possibilities
10. Ray Gunn (Netflix) — Brad Bird & Matthew Robbins
11. Michael (Lionsgate) — John Logan
12. Coward (MUBI) — Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens
13. Josephine (Sumerian) — Beth de Araújo

Long Shots
14. The Drama (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli
15. Tenzing (Apple) — Luke Davies
16. Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (Sony Classics) — Nicholas Huynh & Josef Kubota Wladyka
17. Gentle Monster (Netflix) — Marie Kreutzer

Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon) — Simon Rich
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Tony Gilroy
Bitter Christmas (Sony Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar — podcast
The Christophers (Neon) — Ed Solomon
Club Kid (A24) — Jordan Firstman
The Debut (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg — podcast
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Sabina Berman, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolás Giacobone & Alejandro González Iñarritu — podcast 1 and 2 (Iñárritu)
Elsinore (Focus) — Stephen Beresford
I Love Boosters (Neon) — Boots Riley
Madden (Amazon/MGM) — Cambron Clark & David O. Russell
Misty Green (A24) — Chris Rock
Mouse (IFC) — Kelly O’Sullivan
Possible Love (Netflix) — Lee Chang-dong & Oh Jung-mi
Werwulf (Focus) — Robert Eggers & Sjón

Commentary Entries are pouring in by the day from all around the world as countries complete their deliberations ahead of the Sept. 30 submission deadline. A new rule has made the winners of several major fests’ top prizes automatic entries: Berlin’s Golden Bear winner Yellow Letters and Cannes’ Palme d’Or winner Fjord. (Fjord was nevertheless still submitted by Romania, even though the country could have entered another film and had two in the mix — kind of bizarre.) And other films that won secondary prizes at those fests have also been entered (e.g. Berlin’s Rose and Cannes’ All of a Sudden and Coward). The biggest remaining question marks, to me, are which film will be submitted by Spain (contenders include the Netflix-backed La Bola Negra, the Javier Bardem vehicle The Beloved, Pedro Almodovar’s Bitter Christmas and A Woman’s Life) and France (La Gradiva, The Unknown and Cannes Grand Prize winner Minotaur, which, thanks to a new rule, is eligible as the work of an exile living in the country).

*confirmed submission

Frontrunners
1. Spain — La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review)
2. *Romania/Automatic entry via Cannes Film Festival’s Palme d’Or — Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review)
3. Poland — Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review)
4. *Japan — All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review)
5. France — Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review)

Major Threats
6. *Belgium — Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review)
7. *Austria — Rose (MUBI, TBD, THR review)
8. Spain — The Beloved (Kino Lorber, TBD, THR review)

Still to See or Under Embargo
*Automatic entry via Berlin Film Festival’s Golden Bear — Yellow Letters (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review)
*Automatic entry via Sundance Film Festival’s World Cinema Grand Jury Prize (Dramatic) — Shame and Money (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review)
*Cambodia — Becoming Human (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Canada — Nina Roza (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review)
*Chile — The Meltdown (Kino Lorber, TBD, THR review)
*Colombia — Rains Over Babel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Czech Republic — If Pigeons Turned to Gold (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Dominican Republic — Melodrama (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Estonia — Our Erika (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
France — La Gradiva (1-2 Special, Dec. 18, THR review)
France — The Unknown (Neon, TBD, THR review)
*Germany — Everytime (1-2 Special, TBD, THR review)
Hungary — Moulin (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review)
*Ireland — Aontas (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Kosovo — Dua (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Latvia — Ulya (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Lithuania — How to Divorce During the War (Kino Lorber, Aug. 21)
*Mexico — On the Road (Strand, Oct. 28, THR review)
*Peru — Night Has Come (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Slovakia — Flood (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*South Korea — Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23)
Spain — Bitter Christmas (Sony Classics, TBD, THR review)
Spain — A Woman’s Life (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review)
*Switzerland — Who Is Still Alive (Watermelon, TBD)
*Taiwan — A Foggy Tale (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Thailand — 9 Temples to Heaven (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
*Turkey — Like a Limbless Tree (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Venezuela — It Would Be Night in Caracas (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)

Read more George Clooney Challenges Authoritarians in Powerful Speech in Venice: “Stories Are Always Dangerous to People Who Peddle in Fear”

Commentary Few if any of the Academy’s branches have changed more or been harder to predict in recent years than the documentary branch. But, having made a point of watching dozens of doc features over the past couple of months, I’m pretty certain the branch’s members will respond strongly to Once Upon a Time in Harlem, the backstory of which is almost as powerful as the story it depicts on screen: it’s essentially a ghost story, featuring footage of a lively 1972 gathering of the surviving figures of the Harlem Renaissance, all of whom are now long dead, discussing their lives and times — footage which was shot by William Greaves, who died in 2014, but which was never turned into a film until his son, David Greaves, finished it more than a half-century after it was shot. The film is in a league of its own.

Other docs that are both artistically ambitious and provoking a lot of conversation include two massive epics, Musk, Oscar winner Alex Gibney’s four-hour epic about Elon, and My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile, a six-hour sequel which, like three of this Oscar category’s last four winners, is largely about Putin’s Russia; American Doctor, a disturbing portrait of the experiences of three American doctors who volunteered at a hospital in Gaza; One in a Million, which chronicles the epic journey of a family of Syrian refugees; and two breathtaking films about professional climbers, Everest: The Other Side and The Last First: Winter K2.

Still to be unveiled: Ava DuVernay’s follow-up to her Oscar-nominated doc 13th a decade later, 14th, which will close the New York Film Festival on Oct. 9.

Frontrunners
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (Neon, Oct. 16, THR review) — David Greaves & William Greaves SUND, CANN
2. Musk (Bleecker Street, Oct. 16) — Alex Gibney — podcast VENI, TIFF
3. American Doctor (Watermelon, Aug. 14, THR review) — Poh Si Teng SUND
4. One in a Million (Frontline, TBD, THR review) — Itab Azzam & Jack MacInnes SUND
5. My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile (MUBI, Oct. 30) — Julia Loktev VENI, NYFF

Major Threats
6. Everest: The Other Side (Nat Geo, Oct. 30) — Jimmy Chin & Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi VENI, TIFF
7. The Last First: Winter K2 (Apple, TBD) — Amir Bar-Lev SUND
8. Avedon (Netflix, TBD, THR review) — Ron Howard CANN
9. The Trial of Alec Baldwin (Abramorama, Oct. 1) — Rory Kennedy DNYC
10. Cookie Queens (Roadside, Aug. 7, THR review) — Alysa Nahmias SUND
11. Rehearsals for a Revolution (Sony Classics, TBD, THR review) — Pegah Ahangarani CANN, TIFF
12. Nuisance Bear (MUBI, TBD, THR review) — Gabriela Osio Vanden & Jack Weisman SUND
13. Ash and Crayons (Briarcliff, TBD) — Evgeny Afineevsky
14. Give Me the Ball! (ESPN, TBD, THR review) — Liz Garbus & Elizabeth Wolff SUND
15. Union Town (self-distributed, TBD) — Barbara Kopple VENI, TIFF

Possibilities
16. Boorman and the Devil (self-distributed, Aug. 28, THR review) VENI (’25)
17. Soul Patrol (Kino Lorber, TBD, THR review) SUND
18. Steal This Story, Please! (self-distributed, April 10) — Tia Lessin and Carl Deal TELL (’25), DNYC (’25)
19. Free Leonard Peltier (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — David France and Jesse Short Bull SUND (’25)
20. Everybody to Kenmure Street (Icarus, May 22) — Felipe Bustos Sierra SUND
21. Barbara Forever (Strand, Sept. 4) — Brydie O’Connor SUND, BERL
22. The Last Guest of the Holloway Motel (self-distributed, May 22) — Nicholas Freeman & Motel Ramiel Petros TRIB (’25)
23. Seized (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — Sharon Liese SUND
24. The Cycle of Love (Variance, Aug. 28) — Orlando von Einsiedel TELL (’25)
25. Time and Water (Nat Geo, May 29) — Sara Dosa SUND, SXSW
26. Jane Elliott Against the World (Independent Lens, TBD) — Judd Ehrlich SUND
27. Maverick: The Epic Adventures of David Lean (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — Barnaby Thompson CANN

Long Shots
28. The History of Concrete (Magnolia, Sept. 18, THR review) — John Wilson KARL
29. Peter Asher: Everywhere Man (self-distributed, June 19, THR review) — Dan Geller & Dayna Goldfine TELL (’25)
30. Public Access (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — David Shadrack Smith SUND
31. Birds of War (self-distributed, TBD) — Janay Boulos & Abd Alkader Habak SUND
32. The Match (self-distributed, TBD) — Juan Cabral & Santiago Franco CANN, KARL
33. A Child of My Own (Netflix, Aug. 7, THR review) — Maite Alberdi BERL
34. Knife: The Attempted Murder of Salman Rushdie (Abramorama, Sept. 17, THR review) — Alex Gibney SUND
35. The Eyes of Ghana (self-distributed) — Ben Proudfoot TIFF (’25), AFIF (’25)
36. Ask E. Jean (Abramorama, May 22, THR review) — Ivy Meeropol TELL (’25)
37. The Oldest Person in the World (self-distributed, Sept. 10) — Sam Green SUND, SXSW
38. Lumiere, Le Cinema! (Janus, April 25) — Thierry Fremaux TELL (’25)
39. Robert Richardson: The White Devil (TBD, TBD) — Jana Hojdová KARL

Still to See or Under Embargo
14th (Netflix, Nov. 27) — Ava DuVernay — podcast NYFF
The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist (Focus, March 27, THR review) — Daniel Roher & Charlie Tyrell SUND, SXSW
American Pachuco: The Legend of Luis Valdez (PBS, July 17, THR review) — David Alvarado SUND
Baby Doe (self-distributed, July 10, THR review) — Jessica Earnshaw SXSW
The Best Summer (self-distributed, TBD) — Tamra Davis SUND
Burgundy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Michael Dweck & Gregory Kershaw VENI
Carl Sagan: We Are Made of Star Stuff (Nat Geo, TBD) — Nanette Burstein
Dangerous Citizen: The Life and Times of Abraham Polonsky (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Steven C. Smith LOCA
Dernsie: The Amazing Life of Bruce Dern (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) — Mike Mendez CANN
The Disciple: A Wu-Tang Fable (Netflix, Oct. 9, THR review) — Joanna Natasegara SUND, TELL
An Eye for an Eye (self-distributed,Soraya Akhlaghi Aug. 12, THR review) — Tanaz Eshaghian & Farzad Jafari TRIB
A Face Under a Pink Moon (Kino Lorber, TBD) — Soraya Akhlaghi & Mehrdad Oskouei
Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing (Netflix, Aug. 14) — Rory Kennedy
From Dust We Spin (self-distributed, TBD) — Julia Jansch
From Inside Out — The Architecture of Peter Zumthor (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Wim Wenders — podcast VENI
If These Walls Could Rock (self-distributed, TBD, THR review) — Tyler Measom & Craig A. Williams DNYC
The Illusion of an Everlasting Summer (MUBI, TBD, THR review) — Alessandra Sanguinetti LOCA
Jean-Michel Basquiat (Netflix, TBD) — Viridiana Lieberman & Quinn Wilson TRIB
The Lake (self-distributed, TBD) — Abby Ellis SUND
Mary Oliver: Saved by the Beauty of the World (Kino Lorber, July 3, THR review) — Sasha Waters Freyer
Naza (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor VENI, NYFF
Pete Townshend: Behind Blue Eyes (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Cassidy Hartmann, Frank Marshall & Nigel Sinclair — podcast (Marshall)
The Row (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Bryan Fogel — podcast
Standout: The Ben Kjar Story (self-distributed, TBD) — Tanner Christensen
Who Is Still Alive (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI

Commentary The first two Toy Story films predated the creation of this Oscar category. But the third and fourth both won it, and the fifth seems likely to follow them into the winner’s circle: It’s well made and appealing to both children and adults (its commentary on screen usage by kids is pretty powerful), plus it seems unlikely that any other film yet unveiled could seriously challenge it. Ray Gunn might be the best animated feature yet released by Netflix, releases of which won this category’s Oscar twice in the last four years, but its producers — whose names would appear alongside it on the ballot — include David Ellison and John Lasseter, which won’t exactly help its chances. Sony Classics, meanwhile, has a strong entry in Iron Boy, which won jury prizes at the Cannes and Annecy film fests.

Frontrunners
1. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar, June 19, THR review) — Andrew Stanton
2. Ray Gunn (Netflix, TBD) — Brad Bird
3. Iron Boy (Sony Classics, TBD, THR review) — Louis Clichy
4. In Waves (Netflix, TBD, THR review) — Phuong Mai Nguyen
5. Tangles (IFC, TBD, THR review) — Leah Nelson

Still to See or Under Embargo
Forgotten Island (Universal/Dreamworks, Sept. 25) — Joel Crawford & Januel Mercado
Hexed (Disney, Nov. 25) — Jason Hand & Josie Trinidad
Hoppers (Disney/Pixar, March 6, THR review) — Daniel Chong
Jim Queen and the Quest for Chlorequeer (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBA) — Nicolas Athane & Marco Nguyen
Julián (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Louise Bagnall
Lucy Lost (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Oliver Clert
The Ribbon Hero (Netflix, Aug. 8) — Yuki Igarashi
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (GKIDS, Sept. 18) — Steve Cox & Matthew Walker
Steps (Netflix, TBD) — John Ripa & Alyce Tzue
Le Vertige (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Quentin Dupieux
The Violinist (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) — Raul Garcia & Ervin Han
Viva Carmen! (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBA) — Sébastien Laudenbach
We Are Aliens (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBA) — Kohei Kadowaki
Wildwood (Laika, Oct. 23) — Travis Knight

Commentary All four Toy Story films from years past featured tunes that received Oscar nominations for best original song. Toy Story 5 features one that can hold its own alongside them, which happens to count among its writers — and to be performed by — Taylor Swift. In other words, there are only four slots that are up for grabs in this category.

Other big names in the mix for noms include Travis Scott, David Byrne, Backstreet Boys and SZA… plus Jesse Eisenberg, who wrote several songs for his film The Debut… and yes, Diane Warren, who has been nominated in this category 17 times, including at each of the last nine ceremonies.

Frontrunners
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar) — Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift
2. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (Universal) — James Blake, Ludwig Göransson, Christopher Nolan & Travis Scott
3. “La nieve” from La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Guitarricadelafuente & Raül Refree
4. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (Bleecker Street) — David Byrne & Daniel Pemberton — podcast (Byrne)
5. “What Lies with You” from Linda Perry: Let It Die Here (self-distributed) — Linda Perry

Still to Come or Under Embargo
“Bottle Up” from Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie (Paramount) — Backstreet Boys
“By Any Means” from By Any Means (Paramout) — Diane Warren — podcast 1 and 2
“A Parallel World” from Forgotten Island (Universal/Dreamworks) — BINI
“Save the Day” from Hoppers (Disney/Pixar) — SZA, Rob Bisel & Ben Lovett
“[TBA]” from The Debut — Jesse Eisenberg — podcast

Commentary The Odyssey’s Ludwig Göransson has won this category’s Oscar in three of the last eight years — including three ceremonies ago for another Christopher Nolan film, Oppenheimer — and once again, he’s looking hard to beat. But don’t declare the game over just yet. His competition this year already includes legends like Carter Burwell (Wild Horse Nine), Randy Newman (Toy Story 5) and John Williams (Disclosure Day), as well as one of the most impressive and prolific of the younger composers, Daniel Pemberton (who’s in the mix for Project Hail Mary, Ink, Masters of the Universe and The Drama). And the list of scores still to be heard includes compositions by Alexandre Desplat (The Social Reckoning), Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth) and Hans Zimmer (Dune: Part Three), all of whom have won this category’s Oscar multiple times in their own right.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — Ludwig Göransson
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — Daniel Pemberton
3. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Carter Burwell
4. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar) — Randy Newman — podcast
5. Disclosure Day (Universal) — John Williams

Major Threats
6. La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Raül Refree
7. Ink (Netflix) — Daniel Pemberton
8. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street) — Gary Yershon
9. Ray Gunn (Netflix) — Michael Giacchino
10. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony) — Michael Giacchino
11. The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) — Ludwig Göransson
12. Obsession (Focus) — Rock Burwell
13. Minotaur (MUBI) — Evgueni Galperine & Sacha Galperine
14. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Explosions in the Sky (Chris Hrasky, Michael James, Munaf Rayani & Mark Smith)

Possibilities
15. Bunker (Sony Classics) — Volker Bertelmann
16. Pressure (Focus) — Volker Bertelmann
17. Tenzing (Apple) — Rebekka Karijord
18. The Sheep Detectives (Amazon/MGM) — Christophe Beck
19. Masters of the Universe (Amazon/MGM) — Daniel Pemberton
20. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Roger Goula
21. Supergirl (Warner Bros.) — Claudia Sarne
22. The Drama (A24) — Daniel Pemberton
23. Backrooms (A24) — Kane Parsons & Edo Van Breemen

Long Shots
24. Coward (MUBI) — Valentin Hadjadj
25. Being Heumann (Apple) — Francesco Le Metre
26. Fjord (Neon) — Kaspar Kaae
27. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Christopher Spelman
28. The Invite (A24) — Devonté Hynes
29. Tony (A24) — Jay McCarrol
30. Tuner (Black Bear) — Will Bates
31. Josephine (Sumerian) — Miles Ross
32. All of a Sudden (Neon) — Samuel Andreyev
33. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) — Brian Tyler

Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon) — Damon Albarn
The Basics of Philosophy (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Eli Keszler
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Michael Abels, Emily Bear, Lukas Frank, Michael Giacchino, James Newton Howard, Henry Jackman, Nami Melumad, Brandon Roberts & Alan Silvestri
Bitter Christmas (Sony Classics) — Alberto Iglesias
Club Kid (A24) — Cristobal Tapia de Veer
The Debut (A24) — Emile Mosseri
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Cosmo Sheldrake
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer — podcast
Ebenezer (Paramount) — Tyler Bates
Elsinore (Focus) — Stefan Gregory
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Dave Palmer
Primetime (A24) — Ari Balouzian
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Alexandre Desplat
Werwulf (Focus) — Robin Carolan

Commentary Earlier this year, this category’s inaugural Oscar went to the same film that was crowned best picture. Was that because voters felt that the casting of One Battle After Another was specifically worthy of recognition, or because, without specific guidance about how to evaluate casting (biggest cast? best discovery? something else?), voters just treated it as a second place in which to recognize the film they regarded as the best overall? It’s impossible to know. This year, the best picture frontrunner is The Odyssey, which certainly features a large and impressive cast, just like One Battle did — but unlike One Battle, which featured a newcomer (Chase Infiniti) in a central role, all members of The Odyssey’s principal ensemble were already established. So this year, might voters end up opting to reward a different film that instead bet on relative unknown and/or untested actors, such as La Bola Negra, Obsession, Being Heumann or Michael? It will be interesting to see.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — John Papsidera
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — Nicola Abellera Hallman & Jeanne McCarthy
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Eva Leira & Yolanda Serrano
4. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street) — Nina Gold
5. Obsession (Focus) — Skyler Zurn

Major Threats
6. Being Heumann (Apple) — Adam Caldwell & Bernard Telsey
7. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Sarah Finn
8. Michael (Lionsgate) — Victoria Thomas
9. Fjord (Neon) — Hannah Chocron Foldøy & Abhinav Singh
10. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Kharmel Cochrane

Possibilities
11. All of a Sudden (Neon) — Coralie Amedeo
12. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Rachel Tenner
13. Tony (A24) — Chelsea Ellis Bloch & Marisol Roncali
14. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Douglas Aibel
15. Fatherland (MUBI) — Nina Haun, Karen Lindsay-Stewart & Magdalena Szwarcbart

Long Shots
16. Ink (Netflix) — Rebecca Farhall & Gail Stevens
17. Minotaur (MUBI) — Anastasia Smekalova
18. Tuner (Black Bear) — Debra Zane
19. Coward (MUBI) — Sebastian Moradiellos
20. Tenzing (Apple) — Nikki Barrett, Danny Long & Sanjeev Maurya

Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon) — Jessica Ronane
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Carmen Cuba
Club Kid (A24) — Carmen Cuba
The Debut (A24) — Douglas Aibel
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
Elsinore (Focus) — Jessica Ronane
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Laray Mayfield
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Rick Montgomery
Primetime (A24) — Francine Maisler & Molly Rose
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Francine Maisler & Molly Rose

Commentary Only two cinematographers have won four Oscars, and both are dead. Eight cinematographers have won three Oscars, but only three are still alive. Two of those three, Emmanuel ‘Chivo’ Lubezki and Robert Richardson, are expected to be in contention for a record-tying fourth Oscar once we see DIGGER and Madden, respectively. In the meantime, though, the leaderboard includes several past winners, including The Odyssey’s Hoyte van Hoytema (coming off a win for Christopher Nolan’s last film, Oppenheimer), Project Hail Mary’s Greig Fraser (who won for the first Dune), Michael’s Dion Beebe (who won for Memoirs of a Geisha) and Disclosure Day’s Janusz Kaminski (who won for two prior Steven Spielberg films, Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan). And given how much the cinematographers branch loves black-and-white lensing, I wouldn’t underestimate Lukasz Zal for Fatherland (Zal was nominated for two of Paweł Pawlikowski’s prior monochrome films) and Gerald Kerkletz for Rose.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — Hoyte van Hoytema
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — Greig Fraser
3. Fatherland (MUBI) — Lukasz Zal
4. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Ben Davis
5. La Bola Negra (Netflix, 10/16) — Gris Jordana

Major Threats
6. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Arnaud Potier
7. Rose (MUBI) — Gerald Kerkletz
8. Michael (Lionsgate) — Dion Beebe
9. Ink (Netflix) — Alwin H. Küchler
10. All of a Sudden (Neon) — Alan Guichaoua

Possibilities
11. Coward (MUBI) — Frank van den Eeden
12. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Adam Newport-Berra
13. Tenzing (Apple) — Stefan Duscio
14. Backrooms (A24) — Jeremy Cox
15. Disclosure Day (Universal) — Janusz Kaminski

Long Shots
16. Fjord (Neon) — Tudor Vladimir Panduru
17. The Invite (A24) — Adam Newport-Berra
18. Obsession (Focus) — Taylor Clemons
19. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Joaquin Baca-Asay

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alone at Dawn (Amazon/MGM) — Salvatore Totino
Artificial (Neon) — Malik Hassan Sayeed
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Damián García
Club Kid (A24) — Adam Newport-Berra
The Debut (A24) — Drew Daniels
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Emmanuel Lubezki
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Linus Sandgren
Elsinore (Focus) — Mike Eley
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Erik Messerschmidt
Heart of the Beast (Paramount) — Mauro Fiore
Hope (Neon) — Hong Kyung-pyo
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Sean Porter
Madden (Amazon/MGM) — Robert Richardson — podcast
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Jeff Cronenweth
Werwulf (Focus) — Jarin Blaschke

Commentary The costume designers branch loves work in period and fantasy films. That’s great news for films like The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, La Bola Negra and Sense and Sensibility. Films set in the real world, and in the more recent past or the present day, tend to have more of an uphill climb. But I suspect that Michael could make the cut, thanks to its faithful recreations of Michael Jackson’s colorful outfits. One other thing to consider: the branch not infrequently nominates films in which costumes/fashion and design are actually part of the plot (e.g. The Devil Wears Prada, Coco Before Chanel, Phantom Thread, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), which could bode well for Coward.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — Ellen Mirojnick
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — David Crossman & Glyn Dillon
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Ana López Cobos
4. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Grace Snell
5. Coward (MUBI) — Isabel Van Renterghem

Major Threats
6. Michael (Lionsgate) — Marci Rodgers
7. Fatherland (MUBI) — Ola Staszko
8. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh

Possibilities
9. Ink (Netflix) — Carson McColl & Gareth Pugh
10. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Liz McGregor
11. Rose (MUBI) — Doris Bartelt

Long Shots
12. Tenzing (Apple) — Kirsty Cameron
13. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Amy Roth
14. Fjord (Neon) — Mircea Olteanu

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alone at Dawn (Amazon/MGM) — Denise Wingate
Artificial (Neon) — Marco Costa
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Mary Zophres
Club Kid (A24) — Emily Costantino
The Debut (A24) — Stacey Battat
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West
Ebenezer (Paramount) — Catherine George
Elsinore (Focus) — Mel Page
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Trish Summerville
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Amy Roth
Madden (Amazon/MGM) — Madeline Weeks
Werwulf (Focus) — Linda Muir

Commentary We know that the makeup artists and hairstylists branch of the Academy loves to highlight work that makes famous actors look unrecognizable, so the forthcoming films DIGGER (Tom Cruise as an old man, via two-time Oscar winner Kazu Hiro), Ebenezer (Johnny Depp as Scrooge) and Madden (Nicolas Cage as John Madden) are all likely to join the top tier of contenders for this category’s Oscar. In the meantime, though, my projected nominees include The Odyssey, with its wide variety of looks for warriors and women (ranging from Anne Hathaway’s glamorous Penelope to Samantha Morton’s grimy Circe); Michael, with its eery transformations of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo into Michael and Joseph Jackson, respectively; and La Bola Negra, Obsession and The Mosquito Bowl, with plenty of blood and carnage between them.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — Luisa Abel & Gloria Pasqua Casey
2. Michael (Lionsgate) — Bill Corso & Carla Farmer
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix) — Pablo Morillas & Mariló Osuna
4. Obsession (Focus) — Katie Oja & Allie Shehorn
5. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Angela Conte

Major Threats
6. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — Candice Banks
7. Coward (MUBI) — Evalotte Oosterop
8. Ink (Netflix) — Zoe Clare Brown

Possibilities
9. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Emma Scott
10. Pressure (Focus) — Zoe Clare Brown

Long Shots
11. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Christopher Fulton, Jodi King & Todd Kleitsch
12. Moana (Disney) — TBD

Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon) — Massimo Gattabrusi & Fernanda Perez
The Debut (A24) — Jamie Amadio & Sarah S. Graalman
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Kazu Hiro
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Heike Merker
Ebenezer (Paramount) — TBD
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Trish Summerville
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Nakoya Yancey
Madden (Amazon/MGM) — Ellen Arden & Andrew Bell
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Zabrina Matiru
Werwulf (A24) — Christine Blundell

Commentary The production design branch of the Academy has tended to nominate films which required large-scale world-building (e.g. Mad Max: Fury Road, Dune, All Quiet on the Western Front), which bodes well this year for the likes of The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, Backrooms and the forthcoming Dune: Part Three and Werwulf. But once in a while the branch also nominates impressive work on a more intimate scale (e.g. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), which means one can’t count out films like The Invite and Ink.

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal) — Ruth De Jong
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM) — Charles Wood
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix, 10/16) — Roger Bellés
4. Fatherland (MUBI) — Marcel Slawinski & Katarzyna Sobanska
5. Backrooms (A24) — Danny Vermette

Major Threats
6. Michael (Lionsgate) — Barbara Ling
7. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) — Denis Schnegg
8. The Invite (A24) — Jade Healy
9. Ink (Netflix) — Carson McColl & Gareth Pugh
10. Sense and Sensibility (Focus) — Francesca Di Mottola

Possibilities
11. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix) — Philip Ivey
12. Tenzing (Apple) — Melinda Doring
13. Being Heumann (Apple) — John P. Goldsmith
14. Coward (MUBI) — Eve Martin
15. Disclosure Day (Universal) — Adam Stockhausen
16. Bunker (Sony Classics) — Alain Bainée

Long Shots
17. All of a Sudden (Neon) — Mila Preli
18. Fjord (Neon) — Marius Winje Brustad
19. Obsession (Focus) — Tuner (Black Bear) — Peter Cosco
20. Paper Tiger (Neon) — Happy Massee
21. Rose (MUBI) — Olivier Meidinger
22. Tony (A24) — Ryan Warren Smith

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alone at Dawn (Amazon/MGM) — Peter Wenham
Artificial (Neon) — Stefano Baisi
Behemoth! (Searchlight) — Jade Healy
Club Kid (A24) — Stephen Phelps
The Debut (A24) — Anne Ross & Amy Silver
DIGGER (Warner Bros.) — Dennis Gassner
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) — Patrice Vermette
Ebenezer (Paramount) — Eve Stewart
Elsinore (Focus) — Helen Scott
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix) — Donald Graham Burt
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM) — Anthony Gasparro
Madden (Amazon/MGM) — David J. Bomba & Sean Ryan Jennings
The Social Reckoning (Sony) — Jon Hutman
Werwulf (Focus) — Craig Lathrop

Commentary The first two Dune films won this category’s Oscar, so I’d expect Dune: Part Three to contend seriously for it as well. The Academy’s sound branch also tends to respond to films which prominently feature music (Michael, Moana, The Debut), war (The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, The Mosquito Bowl) and, interestingly enough, long stretches of silence (Project Hail Mary, Tenzing, Backrooms).

Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal)
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM)
3. Michael (Lionsgate)
4. La Bola Negra (Netflix)
5. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Tenzing (Apple)
7. Backrooms (A24)
8. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
9. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar)
10. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)

Possibilities
11. The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney)
12. Ink (Netflix)
13. Disclosure Day (Universal)
14. Obsession (Focus)

Long Shots
15. Moana (Disney)
16. Supergirl (Warner Bros.)
17. Masters of the Universe (Amazon/MGM)
18. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alone at Dawn (Amazon/MGM)
The Debut (A24)
DIGGER (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.)
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
Madden (Amazon/MGM)
The Social Reckoning (Sony)
Undertone (A24)
Werwulf (Focus)

Commentary The teams behind both The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary talk a lot about how they employed practical effects on their films — including having human actors provide the movements for their characters Cyclops (Bill Irwin) and Rocky (John Ortiz), respectively — but even those were certainly enhanced by CGI. The VFX community tends to resent their contributions being undersold — Nolan’s last film, Oppenheimer, wasn’t even shortlisted by the Academy’s visual effects branch, I suspect for this reason — so there could be a backlash against those films in this category. Regardless, given that Dune and Dune: Part Two both won this category’s Oscar, it seems likely that Dune: Part Three, once unveiled, will assume the pole position.

Frontrunners
1. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM)
2. The Odyssey (Universal)
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix)
4. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
5. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney)
7. Backrooms (A24)
8. Disclosure Day (Universal)
9. Tenzing (Apple)

Possibilities
10. Moana (Disney)
11. The Sheep Detectives (Amazon/MGM)

Long Shots
12. Supergirl (Warner Bros.)
13. Masters of the Universe (Amazon/MGM)

Still to See or Under Embargo
Alone at Dawn (Amazon/MGM)
DIGGER (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.)
Hope (Neon)
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM)
Street Fighter (Paramount)
Werwulf (Focus)

Among the Contenders
Paper Trail — Don Hertzfeldt
Living with a Visionary — Stephen P. Neary
Apart — Pola Maneli
I Will Be Alright — Cyrus Neshvad

Among the Contenders
The Baddest Speechwriter of All (Netflix) — Stephen Curry & Ben Proudfoot SUND
They’re Here — Rachel Muller & Laura Poitras VENI
New York Never Let Me Down — Charlotte Wells NYFF
South of Tehran — Kleber Mendonça Filho NYFF
Witt v. Air Force — Ben Proudfoot
Love, Rendered — Liz Garbus
The Buffalo Miracle — Ben Proudfoot
The Ship That Turned Back — Allie Light
Magan’s Fare — Christopher Knoblock & Dana White
Room of the Absolute — Elizabeth Baudouin & Natalie Shirinian

Among the Contenders
Flesh Impact — Maggie Gyllenhaal VENI
Candy Bar — Nash Egerton SUND
Jazz Infernal — Will Niava SUND
Crisis Actor — Lily Platt SUND
The Boys and the Bees — Arielle Knight SUND
Power Trip — Patrick Willems

Read more ‘Voicemails for Isabelle’ Director Leah McKendrick on the Staying Power of the Romantic Comedy