Outstanding Comedy Series

WILL WIN Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)

The nominees include two past winners, The Bear and Hacks. Hacks, for its final season, boasts a comedy-leading 24 noms, so a win is very possible. But newcomer Widow’s Bay, which garnered 19 noms, seems to have the late-breaking momentum. Plus, voters love rewarding new shows even more than departing ones (four versus two over the course of the past decade). — Scott Feinberg

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SHOULD WIN Shrinking (Apple TV)

This is probably a race between Hacks and Widow’s Bay, but spare some support for Shrinking, TV’s best melancholic comedy. The third season offered the ensemble ample room to grow, as circumstances pushed both Lukita Maxwell’s Alice and Harrison Ford’s Paul out of the fold. Shrinking is 0-for-18 at the Emmys, but Ford and Michael J. Fox should pick up trophies this year. — Daniel Feinberg  

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

WILL WIN Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)

Steve Carell (Rooster) and Jason Segel (Shrinking) are both overdue for their first Emmy. Everyone adores past winner Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building). But given how much voters love Widow’s Bay, look for Matthew Rhys, a past winner for a drama (The Americans) who’s also nominated this year for a limited series (The Beast in Me), to prevail. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is great in Wonder Man, while Carell, Segel and Short are reliable vets. But this category belongs to Rhys, whose small-town mayor in Widow’s Bay defies comedy and horror stereotypes. Having this delight of a performance nominated alongside his scenery-chewing in The Beast in Me underlines Rhys’ versatility. — D.F.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

WILL WIN Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)

The field includes past winners Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) and Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback) and nominee Elle Fanning (Margo’s Got Money Troubles). But Hacks‘ Jean Smart will become the first actress to win for every season of a show and tie the record for most acting wins regardless of gender or genre (eight). — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)

There is no wrong choice in this category, filled with legends and former winners, with both Kudrow and Smart getting the added sentiment of “final season” spotlights. But it’s the radiant Fanning who deserves her first Emmy for embodying Margo’s Got Money Troubles‘ complicated blend of tones. — D.F.

Outstanding Drama

WILL WIN The Pitt (HBO Max)

The Pitt, HBO Max’s ER-set thriller that won last year for its first season, shot way up in noms for its second. Its 25, up from 13, are the most for any show, far ahead of rookies Pluribus (18) and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (nine) and returning Slow Horses (nine), The Gilded Age (eight), The Diplomat (seven), Paradise (seven) and Your Friends & Neighbors (one). — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Pluribus (Apple TV)

At least four shows in the category arguably belong in the comedy field, with Vince Gilligan’s Pluribus standing as the funniest and most dazzlingly high-concept. Take social satire, inexplicable science fiction and a dose of misanthropic silent comedy, and you get an indescribable look at a woman (Rhea Seehorn) who finds herself as one of the last people with free will. — D.F.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

WILL WIN Noah Wyle, The Pitt (HBO Max)

A formidable field of nominees includes past winners Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) and Mark Ruffalo (Task) and nominees Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) and Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat). But it’s hard to imagine any of them toppling The Pitt‘s Noah Wyle, this category’s defending winner, who has yet to lose a notable award for his portrayal of Dr. Robby. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Noah Wyle, The Pitt (HBO Max)

The only thing stopping Wyle’s run to a second consecutive Emmy is the perception that Dr. Robby became messy, mean and a bit misogynistic in season two of The Pitt. Part of the reason Robby’s behavior felt like such a betrayal, to viewers and inside the hospital, is because of how remarkable Wyle is as this talented man falling apart at the seams. — D.F.

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

WILL WIN Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus (Apple TV)

This race is between two beloved veterans, both of whom have been nominated many times but have yet to win: Keri Russell (The Diplomat) and Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus). Earlier this year, Seehorn won the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards, Russell the Actor Award. Edge here to the one whose show has 11 more Emmy noms than the other. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus (Apple TV)

Every television critic’s poster girl for Emmy negligence before her eventual Better Call Saul breakthrough, Seehorn should be the easiest pick on the ballot. For much of Pluribus, it’s a one-woman show for Seehorn. No, a Zendaya win wouldn’t be bad, but she’s got multiple Emmys already (for Euphoria). Let Rhea have one. — D.F.

Outstanding Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Beef (Netflix)

As in each of the past seven years, I expect that this award will go to either Netflix (which has both Beef, with a category-leading 16 noms, and The Beast in Me, nine) or HBO (DTF St. Louis, 13). All three shows have multiple acting noms and a writing nod; Beef and DTF have directing noms (two for Beef). But only one had a prior installment that already won this award. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN DTF St. Louis (HBO Max)

Broad, coarse comedy about partner-swapping? Murky murder mystery? Bleak satire of the male loneliness epidemic? Steven Conrad’s satire adroitly evades classification, but thanks to Conrad’s gift with intricate dialogue and a cast that earned its across-the-board recognition, the best way to classify DTF St. Louis is as the year’s best and most challenging limited series. — D.F.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Oscar Isaac, Beef (Netflix)

From a field that includes three past winners — Riz Ahmed (Bait), Jason Bateman (Black Rabbit) and Matthew Rhys (The Beast in Me) — plus Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) and Oscar Isaac (Beef), I suspect it’s between the star of the most nominated limited series (Isaac) and the guy also nominated for another performance this year (Rhys, up for comedy Widow’s Bay). — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Riz Ahmed, Bait (Prime Video)

Ahmed created Amazon’s Bait, so it’s no surprise that he wrote himself a complex, distinctive and personal character in a series that meshes Hollywood industry satire with the sort of deep exploration of religious and ethnic identity that programming could use more of. Unlike most in this category, he shines without his character killing anybody. — D.F.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix)

Not since Julianne Moore won for 2012’s Game Change has the winner hailed from a TV movie, as opposed to a limited series. But as great as Claire Danes (The Beast in Me), Sarah Snook (All Her Fault), Carey Mulligan (Beef) and Sarah Pidgeon (Love Story) are, I think voters will reward the legend in the field, Remarkably Bright Creatures‘ Sally Field. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Carey Mulligan, Beef (Netflix)

Pidgeon radiates star power in Love Story, but Mulligan is one of the complicated hearts of the second season of Beef. Mulligan’s Lindsay is brittle, entitled and frequently cruel, giving the actress the chance to deliver scathing rejoinders and self-deluded justifications, all with a deep reservoir of personal disappointment. — D.F.

This story appeared in the Sept. 9 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.

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