{"id":1036,"date":"2026-06-02T14:37:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T14:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uspropertymoves.com\/?p=1036"},"modified":"2026-06-02T14:37:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T14:37:31","slug":"tony-awards-predicting-the-winners-using-just-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uspropertymoves.com\/?p=1036","title":{"rendered":"Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\tTwo-way races abound in the history of best musical at the Tonys. But a genuine three-way race? That\u2019s rare. This is a bit subjective, but in the past two decades I would argue that we\u2019ve only seen one race with at least three nominees being widely considered as potential frontrunners: Two years ago, when The Outsiders<\/em> bested Hell\u2019s Kitchen<\/em> and Suffs<\/em> for the top category.<\/p>\n

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\n\tUntil, perhaps, this year. It might not be quite as tight as that 2024 race, but (with all due respect to Titan\u00edque<\/em>), you could make a compelling case for any of Schmigadoon!<\/em>, The Lost Boys<\/em>, or potentially Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tStill, one of those three does have a lead. How do we know? Math. Every year, I plug in all of the Tonys data from that season \u2013 which other categories a show is nominated in, previous theater honors, aggregated critic predictions, and betting markets \u2013 to determine the odds that each nominee in each category goes home a winner. Let\u2019s find out who\u2019s ahead in this year\u2019s particularly open-ended races.<\/p>\n

\n\tWe\u2019ve got three contenders in double-digits, but one stands out ahead of the pack: Schmigadoon!<\/em>, the sunny love letter to Golden Age musicals, has just better than a 50-50 chance to take the top prize. Still, The Lost Boys<\/em> and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)<\/em> have plenty of reasons to keep their hopes high.<\/p>\n

\n\tBest play isn\u2019t quite as close as best musical. Bess Wohl already won the Pulitzer Prize for Liberation<\/em>, and has a 3-in-5 chance to follow up with a Tony. If there\u2019s to be an upset, look to David Lindsay-Abaire\u2019s The Balusters<\/em>, which won honors from this year\u2019s Outer Critics Circle Awards and Drama Desk Awards.<\/p>\n

\nRagtime<\/em> swept through the precursors, emerging as the favorite to finally win a best show trophy. The original Broadway musical won four categories but fell short against The Lion King<\/em> for the final award, and the 2009 revival lost this category to La Cage aux Folles<\/em>. However, it\u2019s worth remembering that Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em> debuted off-Broadway before this season, meaning it wasn\u2019t eligible for all of the same precursors that Ragtime<\/em> won this year.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe most confident prediction of the four best show categories is also the most familiar title. Death of a Salesman<\/em>, after winning the second-ever Tony for best play, has gone on to win three separate Tonys for best revival. This would be its fourth, doubling up second place on the all-time play revival win list, A View from the Bridge<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tJoshua Henry (Ragtime<\/em>) will have to get past his own costar (Brandon Uranowitz) to win leading actor in a musical, but he shouldn\u2019t have too much trouble. The math says he\u2019s the most likely winner out of any of this year\u2019s 41 acting nominees.<\/p>\n

\n\tCaissie Levy (Ragtime<\/em>) isn\u2019t quite as likely as her costar Joshua Henry to go home a winner, but she does sit just above the 50-50 mark, well ahead of second place Marla Mindelle (Titan\u00edque<\/em>). If Henry and Levy make it a Ragtime<\/em> sweep, it would be only the third time this century that a musical won both leading acting categories. The first two were Hairspray<\/em> (2003) and The Band\u2019s Visit<\/em> (2018).<\/p>\n

\n\tJohn Lithgow. Nathan Lane. This is as classic of a heavyweight title bout as it gets. It\u2019s only the 15th time in Tonys history that two actors who have already won multiple acting awards are squaring up against one another. Of the previous 14, only four times has one of those multi-time winners gone on to win the category (in the other 10 years, a relative newcomer beat both of them). This has all the makings of a terrific Tony duel.<\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s a Tony almost 2,500 years in the making. Since the Tony Awards began, there have been six productions of the ancient Greek classic Oedipus<\/em> to grace the Broadway stage, yet none has ever won a Tony. That looks to change this year, with Lesley Manville serving as the frontrunner for leading actress in a play. Sophocles would be proud.<\/p>\n

\n\tWith Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em> opening off-Broadway in June 2024, many of the precursors get a little muddied. For example, Andr\u00e9 De Shields (Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em>) won an Outer Critics Circle honor in 2025, Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime<\/em>) won one in 2026, but we were denied a head-to-head face-off. Add it all up and De Shields carries a tiny 3.6 percent lead into a night when they most certainly will go head-to-head.<\/p>\n

\n\tBest featured actress in a musical is a tricky category to predict, as it\u2019s the only one of the eight acting categories in which none of the nominees received nominations from either the Drama Desk or Outer Critics Circle Awards. Still, the favored critical pick and betting odds leader is Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys<\/em>), so she comes out ahead in the model.<\/p>\n

\n\tHold your breath for this one. We have six nominees, but none of them reach 33 percent, the only category for which that holds true this year. That makes Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw<\/em>) the shakiest frontrunner headed into Sunday night, with Christopher Abbott (Death of a Salesman<\/em>) oh-so-close on his heels.<\/p>\n

\n\tPlenty of headlines deservedly went to 96-year-old June Squibb (Marjorie Prime<\/em>), who broke Lois Smith\u2019s record to become the oldest Tony nominee in history. And she does still have a chance to win, like Smith did five years ago, but it\u2019s going to be an uphill battle against Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman<\/em>).<\/p>\n

\n\tBest direction of a musical is effectively the same race as best revival \u2013 Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em> vs. Ragtime<\/em> \u2013 but potentially with the opposite result. After all of the data was tabulated and the model was run, the math slightly leans towards Cats<\/em> in this race, but only by a 6 percent margin.<\/p>\n

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\n\tJoe Mantello is a mainstay of these awards, now spanning four decades\u2019 worth of Tony nominations across both directing and acting categories. But his last win came 22 years ago for directing the musical Assassins<\/em>. The math says it\u2019s time for him to retake the stage on his sixth nomination for direction of a play.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe original production of Cats<\/em> won seven Tonys, this year\u2019s rendition is nominated for nine, and best costume design is the most likely overlapping winner between the two shows. Should it win for its feline creations, it would become the seventh musical to take home costume honors in multiple years.<\/p>\n

\n\tJeff Mahshie (Fallen Angels<\/em>) has one prior Tony nomination: Best costume design of a musical for She Loves Me<\/em>, ten years ago. That show had the deep misfortune to run up against the awards juggernaut known as Hamilton<\/em>, for which Paul Tazewell won the costume design Tony. A decade later, and Mahshie has a chance to return the favor, with Tazewell sitting in second place for Joe Turner\u2019s Come and Gome<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tMichael Arden has already etched a unique place in Tonys history this season, by becoming the first person nominated for both directing and lighting design for the same musical (among plays, only Terry Hands has pulled off this dual nomination, for 1985\u2019s Much Ado About Nothing<\/em>). Now, Arden \u2013 along with co-lighting designer Jen Schriever\u00a0\u2013 stands in pole position in this race for The Lost Boys<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe most Tony Awards ever won by play revival is four, a record shared by four shows including the 1999 revival of Death of a Salesman<\/em>. The 2026 incarnation of that same play has a healthy chance to tie or even surpass that record, and lighting design of a play is one of the categories it has to win to have a chance at making that history.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe three-story, 80s-themed, supernatural-tinged set of The Lost Boys<\/em> would be impressive enough if it just sat still for the entire show. Add in the fact that all of the puzzle pieces have to seamlessly move into and out of position to accommodate the occasional flying vampire, and you\u2019ve got yourself all the ingredients for Dane Laffrey to win this category twice in a row, coming on the heels of Maybe Happy Ending<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe seven most recent Tonys for best scenic design of a play all went to designers who had prior nominations in their careers. So, it might be nice to see a fresh face on stage. The two leading contenders \u2013 Chloe Lamford (Death of a Salesman<\/em>) and Hildegard Bechtler (Oedipus<\/em>) \u2013 are first-time Tony nominees, unlike their three less-likely-to-win competitors.<\/p>\n

\n\tMake that three musical categories in a row for The Lost Boys<\/em>, though we can\u2019t count out Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em> in the sound design category. Should The Lost Boys<\/em> go three-for-three on the categories that define the look-and-feel of the stage (lighting design, scenic design, sound design), it would become the 7th musical to do so, and the first since Moulin Rouge<\/em> (2020).<\/p>\n

\n\tIn the brief history of the best sound design of a play category, Tom Gibbons (Oedipus<\/em>) is tied with Ian Dickinson for the most solo nominations for this award without having won a Tony in this or any other category. He has a 58.3 percent chance to break through with a win against the night\u2019s biggest awards favorite among plays, Death of a Salesman<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\tYou have to stay on your dancing toes to keep up with all of the winking references to the Broadway of yore in Cinco Paul\u2019s script for Schmigadoon!<\/em>. I should note that there\u2019s hardly any precedent for how voters will respond to a book based heavily off of a pre-exiting television show, though shows based on films (winners this century: The Producers<\/em>, Hairspray<\/em>, Billy Elliott<\/em>, Once<\/em>, The Band\u2019s Visit<\/em>, Tootsie<\/em>) seem to have done just fine.<\/p>\n

\n\tBest original score is going to be a massively important category this year, not just in its own right, but as a perfect mirror of the best musical race. The same three shows poised to slug it out at the top of the best musical standings are the top three contenders here, and practically tied with one another. We\u2019ll find out if voters are inclined to tip their hands or to spread the wealth.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis may be the model\u2019s most surprising set of odds. Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em> is heavily favored in the public sphere by critics and betting markets alike. The model bakes all of that in, but it\u2019s a little more impressed by Schmigadoon!<\/em>\u2019s run through awards season, including head-to-head at the Chita Rivera Awards and unopposed by Cats<\/em> at the Outer Critics Circle Awards.<\/p>\n

\n\tBest orchestrations marks the fourth predicted win for Schmigadoon!<\/em>, but that musical is hardly alone in its projection to walk away a winner. If every single frontrunner listed in this article wins its category \u2013 a highly unlikely occurrence \u2013 this would be the first time in the history of the Tony Awards that four different musicals (Schmigadoon!,<\/em> The Lost Boys<\/em>, Cats: The Jellicle Ball<\/em>, Ragtime<\/em>) each won three or more categories.<\/p>\n

\n\t***<\/p>\n

\n\tWhether it\u2019s a two-race, a three-way race, or even more open-ended, every category announcement will be a career-defining triumph for one artist and an exciting conclusion for all of us viewers.<\/p>\n

\nBen Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) uses data to write about awards shows for <\/em>The Hollywood Reporter.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more New MMA League Hires Ex-Paramount Network Boss as Content Chief (Exclusive)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tony Awards 2026 predictions forecast, category-by-category, based on a math model by Ben Zauzmer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[245,153,954,955],"class_list":["post-1036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting","tag-awards","tag-broadway","tag-tonys","tag-tonys-2026"],"yoast_head":"\nTony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math - US Property Moves<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/uspropertymoves.com\/?p=1036\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math - US Property Moves\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tony Awards 2026 predictions forecast, category-by-category, based on a math model by Ben Zauzmer.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/uspropertymoves.com\/?p=1036\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"US Property Moves\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-02T14:37:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f6dcb1ef8e64fe67b72b772b81aa822c\"},\"headline\":\"Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-02T14:37:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036\"},\"wordCount\":1954,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/7c5969b6f5f769d65bf994e8d63e71e6.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"Awards\",\"Broadway\",\"Tonys\",\"Tonys 2026\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Interesting\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/uspropertymoves.com\\\/?p=1036\",\"name\":\"Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math - 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